01.24.08
Define the Project!
On the surface, simulation projects are not that different than any other project you need to complete in business or academia. You need to:
- Define the Project
- Gather the necessary data
- Develop models to answer stated problem
- Verify the model is working correctly
- Validate that your customer agrees with the model’s representation
- Experiment with the parameters of the model
- Report conclusions and recommendation with respect to the stated problem
One of the biggest challenges in a simulation project is to define a project that can succeed. The common downfalls are making a scope that is too wide or too narrow, answering the wrong question, or selecting the wrong software.
When defining the scope of the project you need to focus on the questions being asked. If you are building a simulation model just so a model can exist, the project is doomed to fail. You can build a great model but without a stated goal you will never know when you are done and there is no definition of success. As a consultant, it’s especially important to define the criteria that will measure the success of the project. All too often, customers will continually reach for the next possible application of a simulation. I like to say that “simulation will expand to meet the time allotted”. The only problem is that people will get half way through a project and try to answer questions that are not supported by the model scope or the data that was collected. This is one of the best ways to get a wrong answer from a good model.
Another downfall is answering the wrong question. Be wary of people that “want a simulation to show” anything.
”Hey, I need a simulation to show that we need more conveyor before our bottleneck operation”.
This sounds like a person who has made up their mind already and they are trying to recruit you to their cause. Be specific with these requests about how the “need for more conveyors” will be measured and it makes the decision making process less personal and more analytical.
Last and probably least on this list is software selection. Vendors (and I’m one of them) will praise the features of their software with good cause. Certain packages are better and more efficient than others for certain types of problems but the reality that a skilled user can model almost anything in almost any software. If you have a choice and the skill set to back it up. You probably already have a firm opinion on the best course of action. It does make sense to review this choice when defining a project. You might be surprised by the results.
I prefer to generate a specification document at the start of any project. In fact, we’ll often get a signature from the client on the specification. We do this for three reasons, quality, money, and participation. We find that people review documents more closely if they have to sign them. You are less likely to get “revisions” to your assumptions if the specification is read closely at the beginning. Second is money. If customers go outside the scope, you can point to the document and ask for more money. You have to choose carefully when you want to play this card but having support is invaluable if you need it. Last is participation. If a signature is required, you are more likely to get the right decision maker in the room from the start. Many times I have seen a simulation project hijacked in the middle by a manager who should have been in the process from the beginning. Asking blunt questions about each person’s role from the beginning and requiring signatures on scope documents are two good ways to avoid this pitfall.
01.23.08
INFORMS Practice Conf. - Baltimore - April 13-15
I’ve worked with INFORMS on the Winter Simulation Conference for the past few years. April 13-15 INFORMS is hosting a OR/MS Practice Conference at the Baltimore Marriott Waterfront. The conference will focus on real world (practitioner) examples in the OR/MS world. Tracks include Supply Chain Management, Decision Analysis, Health Care, Government, Managing Uncertainty, and tutorials for Methodology and specific Software packages. Past conferences have drawn several hundred attendees. I plan to attend this year since Winter Sim will be at this hotel in 2010 when I am the General Chair.
01.22.08
Simulation is…
I think we all have struggled with this one at one point or another. We tell someone that we do simulations for a living and they ask –
“Do you make video games?”
No, but my kids think I do.
“Do you test crash cars?”
Not on purpose.
“Oh you mean, flight simulators – those are so cool.”
No. But flight simulators are cool.
Alas, we are usually left with a glassy-eyed look when we explain the mundane definition of discrete event simulation and how it is applied. Too bad. Most of us really enjoy what we do. I started this blog in an attempt to talk about what we do, why we do it and how we ought to do simulation.
Personally, I usually focus on the end result. In my case, simulation is usually applied to solve a problem. How much, how many, how fast, etc. We start with questions that need answers and use simulations to help us make an informed choice. Simulations help measure the differences between competing ideas. Get rid of gut feelings and you will make better choices. Of course, it all depends on your data but that’s a conversation for a different day.
I’d be interested to hear how you explain your job, your task, your curriculum to your friends and relatives. Please sign up and post a comment.